Archive for the ‘Product Management’ Category

How to Deal With Unintended Consequences

Saturday, November 7th, 2009

Having just read Levitt and Dubner’s SuperFreakenomics as well as Tenner’s Why Things Bite Back, I’ve been thinking lately about unintended consequences, sometimes referred to as a “law of unintended consequences”. As defined by Rob Norton, it is “that actions of people – and especially of government – always have effects that are unanticipated or unintended.”  Norton sites the reference to unintended consequences to luminary economist and social scientist such as Adam Smith, in his “invisible hand” that self regulates markets, and John Locke, in his campaign against the 1692 legislation for limiting the maximum rate of interest that could be charged.

In Tenner’s book he covers a variety of topics including environmental, medical, and technology advances that have caused unintentionally problems. He uses the term “revenge” as in these advances have taken revenge on those who initiated them. What interested me was not the “revenge” but rather just our inability to predict accurately the outcome of our actions. All of the examples appear to be complex systems, meaning that the exhibit behavior not obvious from the properties of their individual parts. As much as we understand about the human body there is at least an equal amount that we do not understand. The same goes for our environment. Argue with me if you will but when the accuracy of a 7-day weather forecast is less than 50% (using the meteorologist standard of temp predictions within 3 degrees as accurate) or 85% accurate for precipitation 1 day out, it is hard believe that we have a great understanding of the earth’s climate and weather systems. Perhaps you can make a case that on a micro-scale we’re inept but from a macro-perspective we know what we are talking about.

When we add to our Software as a Service or Web 2.0 sites our human customers then I believe our systems start to take on attributes of complex systems. If we could accurately predict the human-computer interaction of our system then we would find all the bugs in our next release in QA. Unfortunately time and time again we learn of bugs or unintended consequences such as a huge drop off rate in sign-ups only after the release after it goes live and real people start interacting with it.

Why we fail at predicting human behavior or weather patterns or any number of other subjects is too broad for a post. However, with the knowledge that we will fail, we can take actions to minimize the impact of the results. The way to achieve this is through A/B testing or split-testing. If you approach changes in your releases as if you’re just as likely to reduce some desired behavior as you are to improve it, you’ll want to have a way to test the results in the real world before committing to them. In our practice we often tell clients that they should have an A/B testing framework or a wire-on/wire-off framework for a variety of reasons including risk mitigation for new features. In today’s world where there are free services that can help with this such as Google’s website optimizer, here is a great case study of how to use it, there really is no excuse for not having this ability within your site or service.

To Succeed Big, Think Small

Wednesday, July 29th, 2009

I, like a lot of you, read lots of blogs and articles each week, some of my favorites include Joel on Software, Coding Horror, High Scalability, Seth Godin, and Tim Ferriss. I also read just about cover to cover the IEEE publications that I receive. I use a variety of methods to keep track of the ones that I like so that I can find them easily when I want to reference them. Two of my favorite tools to do this with are Evernote, where you can clip web pages with tags into your notebook, and ShareThis, where I can drop something in my sharebox and send it to someone at the same time.

I was having a discussion the other day about small services as business opportunities and recalled several threads that seemed to be tangentially related. I parsed through my clipped, starred, and shared items and found these pearls. Whether you are already part of a start-up or considering one here are some ideas that you might consider.

And since one of the technical editors of our book has pounded into my brain the demand to “explain how this relates to scalability”, let me explain. If you’ve read a few of our posts you know that we believe that scalability is about more than technology, in fact if done correctly it’s technology agnostic, but depends greatly on people, process, and architecture. This starts even before the business is founded. The right business plan that balances people and investment with real revenue earning products is critical to scaling. If your cost are too high to service a given number of customers you are losing money. Now you can argue that you’ll get efficiency of scale at some point but you need to survive long enough for that to occur. Without further ado, on to our amalgamation of advice:

Seth Godin says the way to make money on the Internet is by connecting people with what they need. He gives examples that include the following as well as many more:

Connect advertisers to people who want to be advertised to.
Connect job hunters with jobs.
Connect information seekers with information.
Connect teams to each other.

Kevin Kelly says the solution for inventors who are up against the giant aggregators like Amazon is to find 1,000 “true fans”.  If each one is willing to pay $100 each year for something that you invent or service that you provide you can make a great living. This might be four CDs that you produce each year. For those organizations comprised of more than just a solo artist, Kelly states that an increase in fans is necessary but is linearly proportional to the increase in the team size.  He continues that because of the network effect (Metcalfe’s Law) it is likely that the value of the your fans increases proportionally to the square of the number of fans, which means the number of true fans does not have to double to support a duet.

Paul Buchheit, the 23rd employee at Google and creator of Gmail says stick with it, overnight success takes a long time.  They started Gmail in 2001, launched it in 2004 and 7 years later is seen as a huge success with annual growth rates of 40%.

Matt from 37Signals advises to keep your day job and work on your start-up on the side. Even though he capitulates that starting a business does require plenty of time and effort, quitting puts a shot clock on your idea. When coupled with Buchheit’s notion of success is a measure of endurance not speed, this seems like sound advice when possible. For those already under the pressure of the shot clock just remember that is monetization is king and survival is a competitive advantage.

So far in our bucket of advice we have 1) connect people with what they need, 2) find 1,000 fans to support your dream, and 3) don’t jump in until you are able to stick with it for the long haul. What I can add to this is Think Small. Throw away the fifty page business plan that requires $25 million of investment to sustain a profitless company for seven years. Instead think of a single service that people or businesses need.

For Internet companies, there are dozens of services that they need as part of their product offering but only as a small part.  Therefore they either don’t have the expertise or they can’t dedicate the resources to build it well. An example of this is search. Lots of websites need search functionality but few are going to build it themselves when there is a site search tool built by experts available.

Services that come to mind and that either need to be done or need to be done better are contextual classification, yield optimization, micro-payments, recommendations, abstracted scaling, and application monitoring. Go give it a shot and think about scaling from day one of your business.

Advertising Revenue

Monday, June 8th, 2009

The Internet Advertising Bureau (IAB) just released Q1 revenue numbers for advertising online which showed a 5% decline over the same period in 2008.  At $55 Billion in advertising revenue for Q1 2009, the amount is equal to 2007 revenue numbers. “Interactive advertising has taken its rightful place as a fixture on marketing plans across sectors, which means we aren’t immune to broader economic trends,” said Randall Rothenberg, President and CEO of the IAB.

David Silverman, PricewaterhouseCoopers Assurance partner, stated “Current economic conditions are clearly challenging … nonetheless, interactive media continues to consume a larger piece of the overall advertising pie.” According to the growth rates of advertising display mediums, internet display ads were growing at 7% year over year from 2007 to 2008 while all other mediums (radio, newspaper, magazine, outdoor, etc) were shrinking, except for television which grew at a modest 2%.

As we pointed out in our post about monetization, we don’t necessarily believe that people are resentful of advertising on free services or that this downward trend is anything more than online advertising being tied to the economy. However, if you were a start up planning on starting monetization through advertising in 2009 this economy and downward move of advertising spend might have caught you at a particularly bad time. Had your business model built in profitability from the start, you would not be immune from the economy but you would be able to react quicker and be impacted less. Amassing a following and then figuring out how to make it into a business is a great way to burn cash for a lot of years.

Are you building the right product?

Thursday, October 2nd, 2008

Success is a function of focusing on the right market opportunities, building the right product for that market opportunity and building that product the right way.  In our experience, the area that fails to get the right attention most often is “building the right product”.  Companies very often do not seek the right inputs, perform the right analysis or have the right discussions to select the product and feature set with the greatest value to their users.  Very young companies tend to ping between several ideas of the day, resulting in lost opportunity as product initiatives are started and abandoned before completion.  Without product management, these ideas result in disjointed and loosely related features getting bundled into a product offering that is not well understood by the end user.  Oftentimes, especially in SaaS environments, feature enhancements such as scalability, availability and performance are abandoned without being evaluated for their impact to profitability and strategic fit when compared to feature enhancements. 

Our recommendation to help resolve some of these issues is for companies to introduce a process that forces critical thinking about the product feature set, allows for open discussion amongst the business and technology leaders and prioritizes opportunities based on costs, benefits and strategic fit.  The process that we recommend most is a process called the product council.  The product council should include the GM or P&L leader of the product/business in question, senior engineering executives for the product and the appropriate product manager and product management leadership.  The meeting should be held at least monthly, but your company’s release frequency and average time of development might suggest more frequent meetings.

The purpose of a product council is to ensure that the company is choosing the right product features to build given the following: the competitive landscape, customer needs and wants, the need for scale and availability, and company/product profitability.  To this end, the company should create a living list of all the features and product ideas that have been generated within the company and its extended community (shareholders, end users, and other stakeholders).  This list should be analyzed by the product council for strategic fit, financial benefit and risk. 

In analyzing strategic fit, the requests/features are evaluated in order to determine the degree to which they are aligned with the business objectives and strategic direction of the company.  A Maslow’s hierarchy approach to identifying strategic fit is a good way to help prioritize product requests:
• Which features are necessary to complete a base product offering?
• Which features add significant benefit but aren’t absolutely necessary?
• Which features are simply nice to have? 
Debate as to the strategic fit of each of the initiatives should happen within the product council meeting to help ensure that the product initiatives with the greatest fit are prioritized appropriately.

The activity is to perform a lightweight financial analysis.  The financial analysis might be as simple as determining rough cost to build and expected business benefit.  As the company matures it should consider maturation of this process into something that looks more like a probabilistic equation with percentages allocated to each possible financial outcome.  The intent here is to measure impact to profitability.  Product council should return to this analysis after launch to determine if the expected benefits were achieved.

Finally, we recommend evaluating risk as measured through customer impact, potential impact to availability or scalability, and the actions that competitors might take. A simple method of risk analysis can be accomplished by using the Failure Mode and Effects Analysis framework that we shared in a previous post

The result of the strategic, financial, and risk analysis should be a prioritized list of product initiatives.  We urge the inclusion of this well defined but easy to manage process as part of your product management practices.  Let us know if you use or prefer something else to ensure you are working on the right products. 

Do You Need Product Management?

Tuesday, August 5th, 2008

We work with many early stage startups in which the early and critical product phases including discovery, prioritization, specification and the later equally important product phases including product validation (am I getting the results I expected?) are either not performed well or sometimes not performed at all.

Sometimes the company feels that it doesn’t have the money necessary to fund a team of product professionals and attempts to limp along using the entrepreneur’s early vision with the help of some intrepid engineers. Sometimes the company feels that product professionals simply aren’t needed, even going so far as to cite agile methods as the reason (see later posts to explain why agile doesn’t eliminate the product manager position). Oftentimes the company just hasn’t had the opportunity to realize the benefit that a real product professional can offer to their product development lifecycle.

For those of you hoping for a quick and simple answer to the question above, we’ll give it to you right now: Yes – you need product management and you need to staff that team with product management professionals. Marty Cagan does a great job of describing what a product manager’s responsibility is here.

We are of the belief that building the right product is every bit as important as building the product the right way. The former is accomplished by having a disciplined product selection process that is informed by a professional product management team which in turn analyzes the customer needs, competitive landscape and strategic benefits of different options within the product portfolio. The latter (building it the right way) is an engineering responsibility informed but ideally not limited by the specifications that an professional product management team creates.

Equally important is the need for a product discovery phase. This phase is often ignored within many product development lifecycles and includes determining whether there is a product that can succeed within your target market as well as exploration on the topic of what that product might need to do to properly capitalize on the market opportunity.

Ensuring consistent vision through a single organizational owner of the product is yet another benefit to having a professional product management group early. Continuity helps ensure that lessons are both recognized and hopefully retained through organizational muscle memory. Evaluation of product results as measured within the business metrics creates a continuous process improvement feedback loop that helps grow those organizational muscles over time.

Finally, creating a sufficient backlog of product specs within an organization separate from engineering helps to ensure that engineers stay focused on creating shareholder value through implementation rather than specification.

So yes, you should have a product organization and yes they are a team separate from your engineering team. Build one now and help your company grow!