AKF Partners

Abbott, Keeven & Fisher PartnersPartners In Hyper Growth

Making Agile Predictable

One of the biggest complaints that we hear from businesses implementing agile processes is that they can’t predict when things will get delivered. Many people believe, incorrectly, that waterfall is a much more predictable development methodology. Let’s review a few statistics that demonstrate the “predictability” of the waterfall methodology.

In a study of over $37 billion (USD) worth of US Defense Department projects concluded that: 46% of the systems so egregiously did not meet the real needs (although they met the specifications) that they were never successfully used, and another 20% required extensive rework (Larman, 1995).

In another study of 6,700 projects it was found that four out of five key factors contributing to project failure were associated with or aggravated by the waterfall method, including inability to deal with changing requirements and problems with late integration.

Waterfall is not a bad or failed methodology, it’s just a tool like any other that has its limitations. We as the users of that tool misused it and then blamed the tool. We falsely believed that we could fix the project scope (specifications), cost (team size), and schedule (delivery date). No methodology allows for that. As shown in the diagram below, waterfall is meant to fix scope and cost. When we also try to constrain the schedule we’re destined to fail.

fig1

Agile when used properly fixes the cost (team size) and the schedule (2 week sprints), allowing the scope to vary. This is where most organizations struggle, attempting to predict delivery of features when the scope of stories is allowed to vary. As a side note, if you think you can fix the scope and the schedule and vary the cost (team size) read Brooke’s 1975 book The Mythical Man-Month.

This is where the magical measurement of velocity comes in to play. The velocity of a team is simply the number of units of work completed during the sprint. The primary purpose of this measurement is to provide the team with feedback on their estimates. As you can see in the graph below it usually takes a few sprints to get into a controlled state where the velocity is predictable and then it usually rises slightly over time as the team becomes more experienced.

fig2

Using velocity we can now predict when features will be delivered. We simply project out the best and worst velocities and we can demonstrate with high certainly a best and worst delivery date for a set of stories that make up a feature.

fig3

Velocity helps us answer two types of questions. The first is the fixed scope question “when will we have X feature?” to which the answer is “between A and B dates”. The second question is the fixed time question “what will be delivered by the June releases?” to which the answer is “all of this, some of that, and none of those.” What we can’t answer is fixed time and fixed scope questions.

fig4

It’s important to remember is that agile is not a software development methodology, but rather a business process. This means that all parts of your organization must buy-in to and participate in agile product development. Your sales team must get out of the mindset of committing to product new features with fixed time and scope when talking to existing or potential customers. When implemented correctly, agile provides faster time to market and higher levels of innovation than waterfall, which brings greater value to your customers. The tradeoff from a sales side is to change behavior from making long-term product commitments as they did in the past (but were more often than not missed anyway)!

By utilizing velocity, keeping the team consistent, and phrasing the questions properly, agile can be a very predictable methodology. The key is understanding the constraints of the methodology and working within them instead of ignoring them and blaming the methodology.


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