AKF Partners

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5-95 Rule

Previously, I wrote about mitigating risk in the face of uncertainty. I suggested that an agile development model was one way successful companies have been able to mitigate risk. In that post I compared the similarities between organizing into “Scrums” to how Army Special Forces organized in order to succeed in uncertain operating conditions. In addition to the way a company is organized, the way a company approaches project planning can mitigate risk. One of the most often overlooked aspects of project management is contingency planning.

Army Green Berets are fond of the saying, “No plan survives contact with the enemy,” a quote attributed to the famous Prussian General Helmut Von Moltke. Von Moltke and his Prussian contemporaries were brilliant strategists and sought to perfect the “Theory of War.” Their ideas still serve as basis for our doctrine today. Moltke understood that battles can be broken down to a near infinite set of complex options, each of them in turn having still more options depending upon the enemy’s response. A plan only goes so far, at which point the enemy ultimately casts his vote. Von Moltke provided his subordinate commanders with his intentions (a method still taught today in military basic leadership courses), and held them responsible for extensively preparing for all plausible contingencies.
von_moltke

As a Special Forces Detachment Commander, once my team received our orders, we immediately began to plan. Along with the mission, we were given a specific deadline by which we needed to brief our commander. Regardless of the deadline, whether it was 6 hours or a week, we spent approximately 5% of the time coming up with a solid, practical, and safe plan. We spent the other 95% of the time “war-gaming” the plan. During the “war-gaming” portion, we would go through every step of the plan from the time we left our barracks to the time we got back. We thought of every possible thing that could go wrong. What if only two helicopters showed up and not four? What if the helicopter couldn’t land where we wanted it? What if someone got injured? What if more bad guys were on the objective than we had originally thought? We would break our mission down into distinct pieces, or milestones, and would work in teams to come up with solutions to every possible contingency. We would collaborate with our partners, the pilots for example, and let the subject matter experts take the lead in their scope of responsibility. Time permitting, we built mock-ups of the buildings we anticipated operating in, and conducted detailed rehearsals. The rehearsals revealed other contingencies we hadn’t planned for, such as equipment that was being carried by the wrong guy or individuals who needed to work together that weren’t located near each other. We did this because we knew the battlefield was going to be fluid and dynamic. Being prepared not only enabled us to be successful, it saved lives.

While the tech industry doesn’t deal in life or death, although it certainly might feel like that at times, Von Moltke’s wisdom still applies, especially in complex project development. What if equipment doesn’t arrive on time during a data center build? A critical engineer or developer gets sick during a launch or gets hired away? AKF Partners is a company heavily influenced by veterans and our collective experience on and off the battlefield. We encourage our clients to practice the AKF “5-95 Rule” in their Agile methodology. Having a solid plan is a great start but understanding the possible variations in the project’s execution will help ensure the projected is delivered on time and within the budget. Remember the AKF “5-95 Rule” and spend 5 percent of your time planning and 95 percent of your time developing contingencies.


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  • Alex Parkinson

    in August 7th, 2014 @ 21:24

    Hi,
    Great article! Couldn’t agree more.
    I think it is important to realise the difference in value between “planning” as an activity and the production of “plans”. My past experience in the military and in private industry has taught me that you should focus you time and effort on planning (i.e. assessment of options, identifying problem areas, etc.). Not only does this allow you to select right starting point, but also prepares you to choose another course action when you have to.
    Unfortunately many IT organisations waste the limited time they have by focusing on the production of detailed plans (i.e. documents). Unfortunate, these quickly turn out to be irrelevant due to the truism “No plan survives contact with reality”.
    Cheers Alex